Short-term Earthquake Prediction Based on Seismic Precursory Electric  Signals Recorded on Ground Surface.







Various topics in seismology tectonics pertaining to earthquake prediction.


Generation of seismic precursory electric signals.


Earthquake prognostic parameters determination.


Time of EQ occurrence determination.


Epicenter area determination.


Magnitude determination.


Integrated examples from real EQs.


Implementation of the method.


Overall conclusions.


Other seismological topics. The Aegean microplate rotation.




Present network.


Monitoring network to be installed.


Hardware presentation


Data description contained in data files.

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      The entire methodology was developed by analyzing data, which refer to the Earth’s electric field variations and were acquired by the following monitoring sites and correspond on 5 different periods of time:

     1. Time period: 20th June 1999 to 17th September 2000. During this period of time, a single dipole (VOL) was installed in the area of Volos, Greece. Its length was 120m and of almost N-S direction. The used electrodes were the metal casings of two boreholes. The initial recordings were made with a resolution of +/- 1mv.

     2. Time period: 2nd November 2000 to 27th September 2002. During this period of time, at the monitoring site a second dipole, of similar length, was installed and of almost E-W direction. Technical details and preseismic, electrical signals, recorded by Volos (VOL) monitoring site, were presented by Thanassoulas and Tsatsaragos (2000).

   The location of Volos (VOL) monitoring site is presented in the following figure (10.1).



Fig. 10.1. VOL monitoring site location (green lettering) is presented in relation to the lithospheric, deep fracturing (gray thick lines) and seismic, potential map of Greece (2003).

   Unfortunately, my collaboration with Mr. Tsatsaragos ended on 27th September 2002 for reasons beyond my control. Therefore, there is a time period that follows, for which no data are available at all. Registrations of the Earth’s electric field commenced again as follows:

     3. Time period: 15th April, 2003 till present time (June 2007). Athens (ATH) monitoring site was installed and is in continuous operation.

     4. Time period: 23rd May, 2003 till present time (June 2007). Pyrgos (PYR) monitoring site was installed and is in continuous operation.

     5. Time period: 18th March, 2006 till present time (June 2007). Hios (HIO) monitoring site was installed and is in continuous operation.

   The locations of Athens (ATH), Pyrgos (PYR) and Hios (HIO) monitoring sites are presented in the following figure (10.2).



Fig. 10.2. PYR, ATH, HIO monitoring sites locations (blue lettering) in relation to the lithospheric, deep, fracturing (gray thick lines) and seismic, potential map of Greece.

   The limited number of the installed monitoring sites is due to the following reasons:

     - It is difficult and time consuming to find a private volunteer to assist the installation and operation of each monitoring site, at the preselected areas.

     - All expenses which were required for the installation of each monitoring site were paid by private, financial contributions, made, by the research team (Dr. Thanassoulas and Mr. Klentos).
     - Hardware implementation, software design and computer packages construction (periods 3, 4, 5) were implemented by Dr. Thanassoulas, C. and Klentos, V.

   In general, there is no financial support by any kind of source and the appropriate, technical personnel which is needed, for the installation and to keep, smoothly, running a decent, monitoring network, is missing, too.
   At this point, I would like to express my thanks to the operators of the two monitoring sites, in Pyrgos (PYR, Mr. Verveniotis, G.) and in Hios Island (HIO, Mr. Zymaris, N.) for running these sites completely voluntarily and gratis.
   Nevertheless, the current network permitted us to come into serious conclusions about the specific, postulated methodology.

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