|
|
4. EQ
PROGNOSTIC PARAMETERS DETERMINATION
Introduction
Seismologists consider the issue of
“earthquake prediction”, as the “Holly Grail” of Seismology. In
simple words, it is assumed as an impossible task. The reasoning,
behind this notion, is clearly presented in Nature’s debate
(moderator Ian Main, 1999) under the title “Is the reliable
prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?”.
The main objections (researcher, date), which are presented, against
the possibility for a successful earthquake prediction methodology,
are due to the following:
- The Earth is a non-linear system: Bowman and Samnis, 18-3-99;
Sornette, 8-4-99; Main,
8-4-99.
- The stochastic nature of earthquakes: Wyss, 25-2-99; Scholz,
4-3-99; Geller, 11-3-99;
Knopoff, 11-3-99;
Bowman and Samnis, 18-3-99; Jackson, 18-3-99; Zhongliang Wu,
25-3-99;
Crampin, 25-3-99;
Wyss, 1-4-99.
- Lack of physics theory of seismic source: Geller, 25-2-99;
Bernard, 11-3-99; Wyss, 11-3-99;
Knopoff, 11-3-99;
Sornette, 8-4-99; Main, 8-4-99.
- Non-observable preparatory phase of earthquakes: Wyss, 25-2-99;
Bowman and Samnis,
18-3-99.
- Doubts on existence and use of precursors: Geller, 25-2-99;
Michael, 4-3-99; Scholz, 4-3-99;
Bak, 11-3-99; Bernard,
11-3-99; Knopoff, 11-3-99; Jackson, 18-3-99; Zhongliang Wu, 25-3-99;
Main, 8-4-99.
- Objections on methods, used, for earthquake prediction: Geller,
25-2-99; Scholz, 4-3-99;
Knopoff, 11-3-99;
Jackson, 18-3-99; Bowman and Samnis, 18-3-99; Michael, 25-3-99;
Moreover, the question “Is the earthquake prediction possible?” has
been answered in many different ways, ranging from “absolute
negation” (Geller, 11-3-99) to “wonderful expectations” (Jackson,
18-3-99).
In the sections to follow, it will be shown that short-term
earthquake prediction is possible, by integrating well-known laws of
Physics / Geophysics to Earth geophysical models, which are in
common use in routine geophysical targets to date. Consequently, the
present work is not considered as a pure academic research project,
but it should be treated rather, as a complicated, radically new,
geophysical application.
The logical sequence, which evolves into a successful prediction,
will be followed in the course of the presentation. At first we deal
with the parameter of time. Then the parameter of location and the
magnitude parameter will follow, which strictly depends on the first
two. |
