Short-term Earthquake Prediction Based on Seismic Precursory Electric Signals Recorded on Ground Surface.
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“What today seems impossible, is tomorrow’s reality”
Dinos
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The term “earthquake prediction” refers to the knowledge of the earthquake prognostic parameters, that is the location, the time of occurrence and its magnitude, for some time before it takes place. According to the prognostic time window it is distinguished as: long-term, referring to a time window of some decades of years, medium-term, referring to a time window of a few years (2-3) and short-term, referring to a time window of the order of up to a couple of months, while sometime the term “immediate” is used when the time window is of the order of a few days.
The aim of this web site is exactly this:
a. to present the implemented earthquake prediction deterministic specific procedure, by which, after introducing different physical models that are related to the seismicity and physical properties of a seismogenic area, allow us to use conventional physics laws and mathematical analysis for the calculation of the individual prognostic parameters.
b. to give the opportunity to other scientists, being interested in the topic of earthquake prediction, for further research related to the seismic precursory electric signals.
For the fulfillment of the aim of this web site, all the details of the methodology (theoretical analysis, application examples on real large EQs, used hardware, collected raw data for the period 2003 - 2012), a detailed monograph (374 pages) under the title "Short-term Earthquake Prediction" written by Dr. Thanassoulas (Geophysicist) and published on 2007, are freely downloadable in PDF form.
In the seismological history, so far, only two large earthquakes have been successfully predicted. Click on the following links for details.
- The first one is the Haicheng (China, 1975, M = 7.3) earthquake.
- The second is the Skyros (Greece, 2001, M = 6.1) earthquake, which was verified in written form by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. (Article placed at the database (Physics - Geophysics) of Cornell University, N.Y., USA)
We hope you will enjoy touring in this web site (it takes some hours to visit all of it) and encourage you to apply and test this methodology in your own country (provided it is a seismogenic one).
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THE TWO SUCCESSFUL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS,
WORLDWIDE, SO FARGlobal list of Cities v.s. regionally (for R = 150 Km) accumulated seismic energy, expressed in terms of an EQ of equivalent magnitude, determined by the application of the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM) on the USGS EQ data base.
For GLOBAL LIST OF CITIES click HERE.
For GREEK LIST OF CITIES click HERE.
(Last update: March 05th, 2021)
Large EQs occurrence time is compared to M1 and Diurnal tidal components
that have been calculated for each corresponding epicentral area as follows:
- For recent GLOBAL LARGE SEISMICITY click HERE.
- For recent GREEK LARGE SEISMICITY click HERE.
ANNOUNCEMENT (October 22nd, 2018)
New "Preseismic Electric Signals Data Acquisition System" presentation
(utilized with the cutting edge of the current state of the electronic technology)
ANNOUNCEMENT (April 9th, 2012)
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