The term “earthquake prediction” refers to the
knowledge of the earthquake prognostic parameters, that is the location,
the time of occurrence and its magnitude, for some time before it takes
place. According to the prognostic time window it is distinguished as:
long-term, referring to a time window of some decades of years,
medium-term, referring to a time window of a few years (2-3) and
short-term, referring to a time window of the order of up to a couple of
months, while sometime the term “immediate” is used when the time window
is of the order of a few days.
The aim of this web site is
a. to present the implemented earthquake prediction
deterministic specific procedure, by which, after introducing
different physical models that are related to the seismicity and
physical properties of a seismogenic area, allow us to use
conventional physics laws and mathematical analysis for the calculation
of the individual prognostic parameters.
b. to give the opportunity to other scientists, being
interested in the topic of earthquake prediction, for further research
related to the seismic precursory electric signals.
For the fulfillment of the aim of this
web site, all the details of the methodology (theoretical
analysis, application examples on real large EQs, used hardware,
collected raw data for the period 2003 - 2012), a detailed
monograph (374 pages) under the title "Short-term Earthquake Prediction"
written by Dr. Thanassoulas (Geophysicist) and published on 2007, are
freely downloadable in PDF form.
AREA DETERMINATION by applying inversion / joint inversion on the "strange
attractor" EQ electric precursor (for theoretical analysis - examples
click the topic "Strange Attractor" in the Contents menu).
THE TWO SUCCESSFUL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS,
WORLDWIDE, SO FAR
In the seismological history, so far, only two
large earthquakes have been successfully predicted. Click on the following links for details.
- The first one
is the Haicheng (China, 1975, M = 7.3) earthquake.
- The second is the
Skyros (Greece, 2001, M = 6.1) earthquake, which was verified in
by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.
placed at the database (Physics - Geophysics) of
Cornell University, N.Y., USA)
We hope you will enjoy touring in
this web site (it takes some hours to visit all of it) and encourage you
to apply and test this methodology in your own country (provided it is a